Assessing Flood Susceptibility of Sub-basins in Kapisa Using HEC-HMS Hydrological Modeling, AHP and ArcGIS Pro

Mahbobullah Noori; Naqibullah Sediqi

doi:10.62810/jnsr.v4i3.590

Authors

Mahbobullah Noori Kabul University, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Kabul, Afghanistan
Naqibullah Sediqi Kabul University, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Kabul, Afghanistan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.62810/jnsr.v4i3.590

Keywords:

HEC-HMS, Flood Susceptibility, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), ArcGIS Pro, Ungauged Catchments, Peak Dischar

Abstract

Flood susceptibility assessment in ungauged mountainous catchments is challenging because streamflow observations are limited and conventional approaches may rely mainly on static topographic and environmental characteristics without explicitly accounting for hydrological response. This study presents an event-based flood susceptibility prioritization framework that integrates HEC-HMS 4.12 hydrological modeling with Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) spatial analysis in ArcGIS Pro to assess and prioritize relative flood susceptibility across 18 sub-basins in Kapisa Province, Afghanistan. A seven-day storm event from April 10–17, 2024, was simulated using GPM IMERG V07 satellite precipitation data. Marginal peak discharge from HEC-HMS sub-basin elimination analysis, together with Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) and terrain slope, was incorporated into the AHP-based Flood Susceptibility Index. The AHP-Online System assigned weights of 64.8% to marginal peak discharge response (nHMS), 23.0% to composite SCS-CN (nCN), and 12.2% to terrain slope (nSlope). Results demonstrated substantial differences in hydrological response among the 18 sub-basins. Subbasin-3 produced the highest marginal peak discharge of 140.9 m³/s, while Subbasin-22 generated the largest marginal runoff volume contribution of 5,450.2 × 10³ m³. For this study, Subbasin-22 and Subbasin-2 were classified as very highly susceptible, while Subbasin-3, Subbasin-8, Subbasin-10, Subbasin-14, Subbasin-18, and Subbasin-19 were highly susceptible. Their combined runoff volume contributions represented 23.2% of total runoff volume. The framework provides a practical screening tool for for sub-basin prioritization, monitoring, field investigation, and management in data-scarce mountainous regions, but should be interpreted as relative prioritization for the investigated event rather than absolute long-term flood risk.

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