Trend and Instability Analysis of Milk Production and Consumption in the South Asia Region

Abstract

This study examined the trend and variability in milk production and consumption in different countries of the South Asian region from the year 2000 to the year 2017. An exponential growth function was fitted to estimate compound annual growth rates (CAGR) in milk production and consumption. Cuddy-Della Valle indices were constructed to examine the extent of instability. The study reveals that the growth rate of milk consumption in Afghanistan and Nepal was higher than that of milk production, indicating an increasing trend of net imports in these countries. In Bhutan, milk growth (CAGR) was negative for both production (-0.69 percent) and consumption (-0.67 percent), indicating a weak performance in the livestock sector during the study period. However, in this South Asian region, the positive CAGR in milk production varied from 1.38 percent in Iran to 5.20 percent in Sri Lanka, with total consumption growing at almost the same rate as production in these two countries. In the South Asian region, all countries showed low milk production and consumption variability, except Sri Lanka, where medium instability was observed in both milk production and consumption during this period. In Afghanistan, milk production grew at an annual compound rate of 1.86 percent, slightly less than milk consumption, which grew by 2 percent compound annual growth rate.