Analysis of Export Potential and Trade Direction of Afghanistan Figs in Global Market

Abstract

The expansion of Afghanistan's share in the global market is critical for the country's development, particularly given its chronic trade deficit. Although Afghanistan is renowned for producing and exporting high-quality fruits, especially figs, it has not fully utilized its export potential. Based on secondary data from ITC and FAOSTAT, this study analyzed the export performance of Afghan figs from 2000 to 2019. An exponential growth function, the Cuddy-Della-Valle instability Index, Revealed Comparative Advantage indices and Markov chain analysis was employed. The results showed that fig exports grew positively with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.20%, exhibiting low instability. Afghanistan demonstrated significant export potential and maintained a strong and consistent comparative advantage in exporting figs, particularly to Pakistan, followed by India and the UAE. In 2019, the total export potential for Afghan figs was estimated at US$ 211.00 million, compared to an actual export value of US$ 91.60 million. The largest untapped export potential was identified in India, followed by the USA and Canada. While Afghanistan has retained its market share in some regions, it risks losing its share in others. The study recommends reorienting production and marketing systems to address these challenges and align them with global market demands. Additionally, progressive export promotion strategies should be implemented to diversify export destinations and minimize market risks.