Growth and Instability of Cotton Area, Production, and Yield in Afghanistan

Abdulbaqi Ahmadzai; Nasir Ahmad  Ahmadzai; Ayaz Khan  Naseri; Noorullah  Halimzai

doi:10.62810/jnsr.v4i2.504

Authors

Abdulbaqi Ahmadzai Kabul University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension, Faculty of Agriculture, Kabul, Afghanistan
Nasir Ahmad Ahmadzai Kabul University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension, Faculty of Agriculture, Kabul, Afghanistan
Ayaz Khan Naseri Kabul University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension, Faculty of Agriculture, Kabul, Afghanistan
Noorullah Halimzai Kabul University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension, Faculty of Agriculture, Kabul, Afghanistan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.62810/jnsr.v4i2.504

Keywords:

Cotton, Cuddy-Della Valle Index, Growth rate, Instability, Afghanistan

Abstract

Cotton is one of the most significant industrial crops worldwide. It plays a vital role in the world's economic, political, and social affairs. The objective of this study is to evaluate the growth and instability of cotton in Afghanistan from 2009-2010 to 2024-2025.The study utilized secondary data for analysis. Compound Growth Rate (CGR) was employed to estimate growth trends, while the Cuddy-Della Valle Index (CDVI) was used to assess instability. The analysis was conducted at both regional and national levels.The results revealed that the Herat region registered the highest and considerable growth rates in area and production of cotton during period I (2009-10 to 2016-17) and the overall period. Spin Zar (Kunduz), however, showed negative growth rates in area and production across all periods. The Helmand region registered the highest and significant growth rates in area, production, and yield during period II (2017-18 to 2024-25). Whereas, Balkh, Spin Zar (Kunduz) and Nangarhar regions in period II registered negative growth. At the national level, steady growth was observed during Period I, with 5.58, 6.50, and 0.88 percent growth in area, production, and yield, respectively. This instability may be associated with climatic variability, input supply constraints, and market fluctuations; however, these factors were not directly tested in the present study. Based on the findings, improving farmers’ access to credit and strengthening institutional support are essential to increasing cotton production and enhancing Afghanistan’s competitiveness in global markets.

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